jerred

Understanding Probability in Business

Recently, I found myself playing a game of coin flipping with my two boys. The goal was simple: see who could get the most consecutive heads. While the expected outcome over many flips should hover around a 50/50 split between heads and tails, something extraordinary happened—my son William managed to flip heads eight times in a row. The probability of this happening in just ten flips is less than 1%, yet it happened right before our eyes.

This experience brought a powerful realization: in business, as in coin flipping, the theoretical probabilities don’t always line up with real-world outcomes, especially when preparation and experience enter the picture.

Scaling Business: Not Just a Coin Toss

When it comes to scaling your business, it might initially feel like flipping a coin—uncertain and unpredictable. However, as you accumulate experience, learn from your mistakes, and understand your market, you transform that coin toss into a calculated strategy. You’re no longer leaving your success to chance; instead, you’re actively shaping the odds in your favor.

The Key to Business Growth: Experience and Focus

Here’s how you can start to manipulate the odds like an experienced coin flipper:

• Improve your product: Always look for ways to enhance what you offer.
• Enhance your marketing: Learn what attracts customers and refine your outreach.
• Optimize your sales process: Make buying as easy and pleasant as possible for your customers.
• Exceed customer expectations: Provide exceptional service that turns customers into advocates.

Applying the Lessons

Just like William’s unlikely streak of heads, achieving what seems statistically improbable in your business is possible. By focusing on key growth areas and leveraging your unique experiences, you can scale your business beyond conventional expectations. Remember, it’s not about the random chance of a coin flip; it’s about preparing and positioning yourself to succeed repeatedly.

The Mathematical Game of Business

In the world of business, particularly in scaling, you’re not confined to the average outcomes dictated by statistics. You create your own statistics by focusing on effective strategies, documenting what works, and continuously applying these lessons to innovate and improve. This approach shifts you from a game of chance to one of strategic mastery.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Time-Stamped Show Notes

• [00:00:30] Introduction to the concept of probability and its relation to business growth.
• [00:01:30] Story of a coin flipping game illustrating random probability vs. controlled outcomes.
• [00:02:30] Discussion on the illusion of probability in business and how experience alters outcomes.
• [00:03:30] Strategies for scaling your business by focusing on key growth areas.
• [00:04:30] How to apply lessons learned to consistently beat the odds.
• [00:05:30] Closing thoughts on shifting from a game of chance to strategic mastery in business.

The Story of the “Captain’s Car”

In military culture, there’s a tradition known as the “captain’s car,” where officers typically upgrade their vehicles upon promotion to captain, thanks to the significant pay raise that comes with the rank. Instead of going for a flashy new car, my “captain’s car” was an old Volkswagen Cabriolet—affectionately nicknamed “the golf cart.” This car, with its quirks and limitations, was a stark departure from the norm but it represented something much greater for me. It embodied the principle of ‘process vs. outcome,’ highlighting that sometimes the choices that seem unconventional at the time are exactly what we need to achieve our broader goals.

Why Choose a Less Glamorous Car?

At the time, my wife Emily and I were deep in debt, over $100,000, as we prepared for my transition from military life to entrepreneurship. Every decision, including the purchase of a cheaper, less reliable car, was made to align our financial actions with our long-term goals: becoming debt-free and establishing a successful business. This old car wasn’t just a means of transportation; it was a tool in our strategy to achieve financial independence.

The Realities of the Process

The journey towards any significant achievement is often rugged and filled with sacrifices that aren’t glamorous but are necessary. Driving a car that often became the butt of jokes among my peers was a daily reminder of the choices we were making to secure a better future. This wasn’t about the car—I wasn’t attached to the vehicle itself—but about what it represented: the willingness to embrace a less comfortable path for a greater cause.

Process vs. Outcome: Key Takeaways

1. Outcome is Tempting but Fleeting: It’s easy to fantasize about end goals like fancy cars, big houses, or business success. However, these are outcomes that don’t tell the full story of the hardships and sacrifices required to get there.
2. Process is Constant and Crucial: The process is where the real work happens. It’s messy, it’s challenging, and it’s where growth occurs. Embracing the process means understanding that the steps you take—even the unpleasant ones—are building you toward your ultimate goals.
3. Mindset Shift: Recognizing that true success is found in the daily grind, in the decisions that no one sees, and in the mundane sacrifices, can change how you approach every challenge.

Why This Matters

The concept of process versus outcome is crucial not just in business or personal finance but in every aspect of life. By focusing on the process, you ensure that you’re not just dreaming about where you want to be, but actively engaging in the behaviors that will get you there.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Time-Stamped Show Notes

• [00:00:30] Introduction to the concept of process vs. outcome and the story of the Volkswagen Cabriolet.
• [00:01:30] Explanation of the military tradition of the “captain’s car” and my unconventional choice.
• [00:02:30] Discussing the financial and personal motivations behind choosing a less glamorous vehicle.
• [00:03:30] Insights into the daily realities and sacrifices of embracing the process.
• [00:04:30] Conclusion on the importance of process over outcome in achieving long-term goals.

The Genesis of “No Bad Decisions”

This concept started as a personal reminder to stay on track. Whenever I feel myself drifting or if things aren’t aligning the way I envisioned, I reinforce my resolve by telling myself, “No bad decisions today.” It’s a simple yet effective way to steer clear of negative spirals and keep focused on positive mindset and outcomes.

Real-Life Applications of the Mindset

1. Daily Routines: Each day presents multiple decision points. Simple choices, like not hitting the snooze button or opting for a healthier meal, can significantly impact our overall trajectory. For instance, choosing to stretch for ten minutes instead of snoozing can set a positive tone for the entire day.
2. Nutritional Choices: We face decisions about what to eat several times a day. Opting for a chicken salad over a burger and fries during a business lunch is an example of a small decision that aligns with the “No Bad Decisions” mindset, supporting better health and energy levels.
3. Evening Activities: How we choose to unwind at the end of the day also matters. Instead of defaulting to passive activities like scrolling through social media, engaging in a few minutes of breathing exercises can improve sleep quality and reduce stress.

The Challenge of Change

The key to this mindset is not to overwhelm yourself with the pressure to transform overnight or add an array of new habits simultaneously. As I’ve seen with friends and through personal experience, trying to do too much at once often leads to burnout rather than sustainable change. The goal is to make incremental improvements to the decisions that already exist within your daily routine.

The Impact of “No Bad Decisions”

Adopting this mindset doesn’t just minimize poor choices; it incrementally leads to better habits and clearer thinking. This clarity and improved habit formation provide the foundation for adding new, positive changes to your life, only if and when you’re ready.

Why This Mindset Works

“No Bad Decisions” works because it’s manageable. It’s about making better choices in the moments that matter without the pressure of perfection. Each good decision builds on the last, creating a compounding effect that significantly enhances your ability to succeed and thrive in any area of life.

How to Implement This Mindset

Start simple. Tonight, remind yourself, “No bad decisions tomorrow.” Carry this intention into your day. When faced with choices, big or small, remind yourself of your commitment. This isn’t about being perfect—it’s about being better one decision at a time.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Time-Stamped Show Notes

• [00:00:30] Introduction to the “No Bad Decisions” mindset.
• [00:01:30] How the mantra helps maintain focus in various aspects of life.
• [00:02:30] Examples of applying the mindset in daily routines and decisions.
• [00:03:30] Discussing the challenges of implementing new habits and making sustainable changes.
• [00:04:30] The benefits of building better habits through consistent good decisions.
• [00:05:30] Practical tips for integrating the “No Bad Decisions” mindset into your life.

Why Consider Real Estate Investing?

Real estate investing often piques the interest of entrepreneurs looking to diversify their income streams. It’s a common query I get: Is it worthwhile to allocate extra business cash into real estate? The allure is clear—real estate can serve as a stable investment to grow or at least maintain your wealth.

My Approach to Real Estate Investing

My strategy in real estate is straightforward—I’m not looking to obsess over every detail or micromanage my investments. Instead, I prefer a hands-off approach, focusing primarily on single-family homes. This choice stems from my mentorship under a seasoned real estate investor who favored this type of investment.

Key Lessons Learned in Real Estate

1. Start When Financially Ready: One of the most critical pieces of advice I received, and that I echo, is that real estate investing should come after achieving significant financial success in your primary business. If your business isn’t generating substantial excess cash, your focus should likely remain there.
2. Investment Strategy: My personal rule is to own at least 30% of any property I invest in. This might mean a 20% down payment and additional investments in renovations to build equity. This approach minimizes risk and avoids the pitfalls of over-leveraging, which can be particularly dangerous in fluctuating markets.
3. Real Estate vs. Business ROI: The returns from direct business investments typically far exceed what you can expect from real estate, which might offer smaller, more incremental gains. Therefore, prioritizing business growth can often be more beneficial than early real estate investments.

The Realities of Real Estate Cash Flow

Investing in real estate isn’t about quick gains; it’s a long-term strategy. While owning properties can generate monthly cash flow, expenses such as maintenance or sudden repairs (like a broken air conditioner) can quickly absorb these profits. Therefore, it’s crucial to have sufficient reserves to cover these unforeseen costs.

Is Real Estate Right for You?

For many entrepreneurs, especially those not flush with excess cash, focusing on growing the business might be more advantageous than diverting attention and resources to real estate. There are no secret formulas here—success in real estate requires diligence, substantial capital, and a focus on long-term gains.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Time-Stamped Show Notes

• [00:00:30] Introduction to real estate investing for non-real estate focused entrepreneurs.
• [00:01:30] Overview of my real estate investment strategy and mentorship experiences.
• [00:02:30] Advice on financial readiness for real estate investing.
• [00:03:30] Details on investment strategies and the importance of significant equity.
• [00:04:30] Comparison of ROI in business vs. real estate.
• [00:05:30] Discussion on the realities of real estate cash flow and long-term strategy.
• [00:06:30] Closing thoughts on when real estate investing makes sense for entrepreneurs.

The Shift from Vanity to Strategy

Initially, I saw personal branding largely as a vanity play. It seemed reserved for those focused solely on their public image. Yet, as I’ve managed businesses without a personal branding focus, my view has dramatically changed. In today’s market, the individual behind the business is just as crucial as the brand itself. This shift is essential for those looking to grow their personal brand because it adds a layer of trust. People want to know the person behind the operations; they’re interested in your authenticity and commitment.

Strategic Moves and Smart Investments to Grow My Personal Brand

This quarter is pivotal for my efforts to grow my personal brand. Here’s what I’ve initiated:

• Consistent Content Creation: I’ve engaged a videographer who visits monthly to produce high-quality videos. This not only enhances the content but also ensures I am well-prepared and accountable.
• Efficient Editing: I’ve hired a video editor skilled in crafting short-form content for platforms like Instagram, maintaining a flow of engaging posts.
• Boosting Engagement: Actively using Instagram reels has become a tool to grow my personal brand by attracting followers. I’m also retargeting those who interact with my posts, inviting them to join my newsletter.

The Bigger Picture

My strategy to grow my personal brand extends beyond simply gaining followers; it’s about building a cohesive and engaging online presence. Regular posting, strategic advertising, and sensible spending are keys to enhancing visibility and engagement as I grow my personal brand.

Looking Ahead

As I continue to grow my personal brand, my focus is on the effectiveness of these strategies. I’m not indiscriminately investing in tactics but rather choosing those that resonate most with my audience. The goal is not immediate sales but to establish a robust personal brand that can support my future business goals.

By strategically positioning myself and making smart investments, I am setting the stage not just to grow my personal brand, but to transform it into a cornerstone of my professional endeavors. Keep these points in mind as you look to grow your personal brand, ensuring your efforts are as strategic and impactful as possible.

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.

Time-Stamped Show Notes

• [00:00:30] Introduction to personal brand growth strategies.
• [00:01:30] Reflections on previous branding thoughts and current perspective.
• [00:02:30] Strategic hiring: videographer and video editor.
• [00:03:30] The importance of quality and accountability in content creation.
• [00:04:30] Initiatives for boosting online engagement and newsletter subscriptions.
• [00:05:30] The overarching goal for Q3 and the role of advertising in brand growth.
• [00:06:30] Future updates and potential changes in social media strategies.
• [00:07:30] Final thoughts on strategic brand growth and long-term goals.